What Was Lost

What If China Liberalized Politically As It Grew Economically

The recent death of Li Keqiang spurred many to think “what if?” Specifically what if Li instead of Xi Jinping had risen to the top step of the CCP Great Wall of Power a decade ago? It was natural to do so even though it’s hard to know how different China would be under Li. But it got me to thinking about a larger question: what has been lost due to China not liberalizing politically?

What if China had followed the course of countries like South Korea and Taiwan—who grew economically and then liberalized politically? What has China and the world lost by China instead deepening its authoritarianism? A lot.

It’s an interesting exercise to think what the world could have been if only China had taken the liberty road instead of the authoritarian one. For one, it allows us to envision what a possible future could look like if China ever eventually liberalizes. Currently, the world seems a bit woozy from conflict. In recent years, after the promise of the post-cold war era, old dangers reconfigured in different but recognizable forms, from Russia to the Middle East to China itself, as if our world is stuck circling a dark and dangerous mobius strip.

So let’s take a moment to avert our gaze from the current darkness to what might have been a brighter past so that we might glimpse a possible future.

Chinese Would Have Been the Biggest Beneficiaries

Human Rights

When thinking about what the world would have looked like if China had liberalized politically, the first and primary beneficiaries would have been the Chinese people. Basic human rights would have been guaranteed under such a China. The hundreds of writers, lawyers and activists who are currently in jail for calling for basic freedoms of assembly, thought and other basic human rights would instead be free. Chinese could worship whatever faith they wanted to, or not worship at all, and certainly wouldn’t be compelled to study Xi Jinping Thought. No longer would, as Human Rights Watch puts it in their most recent report, “authorities now seek to comprehensively reshape religions such that they are consistent with the party’s ideology and that they help promote allegiance to the party and to Xi.” Plenty of Chinese who don’t adhere to China’s strict crackdown on religion are currently in jail. If China had liberalized politically, they would be free to believe in what they want.

Women’s Rights

Chinese advocating for women’s rights would likely have made real progress in a politically liberalized China. A leader of China’s MeToo movement, Huang Xueqin, wouldn’t be in prison in poor health. In general the burgeoning feminist movement in China would not have been quashed in a politically liberalized China. Maybe we’d even see Chinese women in the sea of male leaders that currently rule China.

LGBTQ Rights
The LGBTQ movement likely also would have made progress as well. Who knows, maybe like in Taiwan, gay marriage would have been approved. At the least, there would not have been a government crack-down on so-called “sissy men,” as happened in recent years.

Socio-economic Issues

These are all basic human rights issues but there social economic issues that might be different too under a system that is liberalized politically. China’s current social safety net is fairly minimal both compared to fully economically developed countries (almost all of which are, ahem, democratic) and even compared to other upper-mid-level economies. Xi has decried “welfarism” over worries the population will go soft. Xi’s propaganda team promotes his tough hard scrabble background during the cultural revolution and offers that as a model for those struggling today. Perhaps if China had a democratic government a decade ago then today household incomes in China would be in better shape due to a stronger social safety net. Maybe reforms to the hukou system would have occurred by now.

Minority Populations

Even in democracies, discrimination against minority populations takes place, as Americans know all too well (or at least should). So there’s no guarantee Uyghurs lives would be tremendously improved if China had liberalized politically. But certainly there would have been a better chance that more than one million Uyghurs would not have been swept up into “reeducation” concentration camps under a liberalized China. Tibetans would have had a better chance too.

Certainly Hong Kong would not have been turned into just another repressed Chinese city if China had liberalized politically. More than likely no stringent National Security Law forbidding freedom of expression and assembly would have taken place.

Numerous studies show that democracies do better economically than authoritarian regimes. Not by a lot mind you. But who would not prefer to have more freedom and a modestly better economy than a worse economy and the heavy hand of oppression?

So, yes, no one has lost more by China’s becoming more authoritarian rather than liberalizing politically than the Chinese people themselves.

But, of course, there are global ramifications from China’s walking down the dark road.

Geopolitically

As China became more authoritarian over the last decade it also became more expansionist. Not just in terms of territorial ambitions but also in terms of working to destroy the liberalized international world order. A politically liberalized China likely would still want to change the international order just as other democratic countries such as India and others do. But it would not be doing so in order to make the world safe for authoritarianism as China’s current government does. In another essay, we asked one to imagine if South Korea, instead of its current 52 million people, had a population of 1.3 billion, but maintained its current democratic structure. The U.S. and other countries would not be worried about that imaginary South Korea trying to change the international order, or at least should not be worried.

The South China Sea might be a less contentious place. Perhaps China would no longer be trying to claim territory nearly one thousand miles from its borders as it does today. Perhaps it would not be bullying the Philippines over a shoal 500 miles from China’s borders, risking conflict and bloodshed. Maybe it would no longer be threatening the coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries.

Taiwan

And what about Taiwan? China, even a politically liberalized one, might still pine to unite with Taiwan. Taiwan has evolved its own culture separate from China. It might want to remain independent even if China was truly democratic. Or, if Taiwanese saw elections in China, if they saw Chinese free to say what they want, to assemble and organize around issues, to protect the rights of all Chinese? Maybe instead of the situation today where China insists Taiwan is a part of China, perhaps Taiwanese would ask to be a part of China. One of the world’s riskiest geopolitical flashpoints would no longer be a danger. Millions of lives no longer at risk. Twenty one percent of the world’s trade that flows through the Taiwan Straits no longer in danger. What a world that would be. We lost that with China not liberalizing politically as it grew economically.

Russia

And what of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Would a politically liberalized China be aiding and abetting Russia in its territorial grab? Would Chinese leaders say Putin is their best friend and essentially condone crime against humanity in its war against Ukraine? Would Putin’s Russia be in worse shape in terms of oil sale revenues and assistance? Perhaps. Maybe a China with a government that is elected would take a different tack.

A Constructive China

Could China play a more constructive role in the world in general if it had liberalized politically? In the Middle East? In Africa? Elsewhere around the world? The geopolitical pressures on authoritarian regimes around the world would be quite different if the second-largest country in the world were democratic.

And what about challenging global issues such as a pandemic and climate change? A politically liberalized China would surely be far less opaque than today’s China. Think about the true cooperation that could have taken place during the pandemic (or perhaps there would have been no pandemic at all under a politically liberalized China).

Much has been lost all over the world with China growing economically but not liberalizing politically.

Science

China is both an innovative economy and a copycat one. These are not mutually exclusive realities. China is ahead of the U.S. in some scientific areas and behind in others. It is desperately trying to catch up in semiconductors and in AI. But China has done remarkably well in its science and technology accomplishments. There’s no guarantee it would have done better over the last decade if it had liberalized politically.

However, there’s a good chance there would be more global cooperation with China instead of the recent retreat to everyone for themselves. Science and innovation is built on cooperation. True freedom for scientists would likely unleash even more goods and services for the world. We would likely have even more cures for human diseases. Again, thinking about the pandemic, true medical sharing of information and cooperation would likely have helped not only China but countries around the world in dealing with the health and economic consequences of the virus.

Across many technologies and disciplines, the more sharing of information, the more cooperation of scientists, would likely lead to more breakthroughs and practical applications shared by all. Think of an EU, U.S., Japan, South Korea and politically liberalized China grappling with the promise and perils of AI. We would all still be worried (and many of us hopeful) about AI but wouldn’t we feel better if such a China was tackling the issue with us whether than each country hellbent to gain an A.I. advantage?

Arts

It’s startling that the second-most populous country in the world with the first or second largest economy (depending on how you measure it) has almost no cultural impact on the world. South Korea and Japan, much smaller countries have had much larger impacts on the world culturally, whether through K-Pop, Oscar-winning movies, anime, fashion or otherwise. India is increasingly influencing the world through its arts, Bollywood, musically and in other ways.

Authoritarian governments clamp down on the creative spirit. And hence we’ve lost decades of Chinese artists. If China had liberalized politically even a decade ago, think of what we might have won in terms of the arts. I bet there was a Chinese Bong Joon Hu who would have directed impactful films that would have people around the flocking to theaters. Maybe some female Chinese singer would be as impactful as Taylor Swift or Beyonce are today.

What if Chinese scholars were free to think and write what they want? Imagine the way we might view world history differently with a Chinese viewpoint, that is unfettered by the government’s dictates, and easily shared with the world.

***

I know I’m maybe the only one who thinks US. foreign policy should be to encourage China to liberalize politically. I’m viewed as naive and unrealistic. But it would be better for China and the world if they did liberalize and we should be upfront about that in our interactions with China. The truly naive are those who think the world is better if China continues on its current authoritarian course.

When reviewing what the world could have been like if China had liberalized politically as it grew economically it’s obvious we lost a lot. In thinking about the coming decades, we have everything to gain by encouraging China to politically liberalize. Twenty years from now let’s not again look back to what was lost.