The Third Man: A New Malevolent Actor
The U.S. joins China and Russia as a malevolent actor in the world
We have transitioned from an era with two large countries acting as malevolent forces in the world, somewhat countered by a third large country, to today the counter country swinging into rhythm with the other two. Today there are three malevolent forces in the world: China, Russia, and, sigh, the United States of America.
The world was dangerous enough with China and Russia, but now that the United States is also a malevolent force, it is not clear how we fight off authoritarianism, economic hegemony and the whims and power of large, powerful countries. For the past few decades, China and Russia have allied in trying to make the world safe for authoritarianism. Both have actively tried to interfere in other countries’ elections. They have intimidated, and in the case of Russia, invaded their neighbors. They both have actively tried to sabotage democracies around the world and wish to change the post-World War II, post-Cold War rules-based international order into one to their liking and to their advantages.
China, as documented in our book, Challenging China, and by many analysts, has been working to change the international order. In fact, Xi trumpets the fact. He has said China must lay “the foundation for a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.” It has been active in the United Nations, working to change it from within. China has even created its own development bank.
China continues to threaten Taiwan: committing cyber sabotage, interfering in its internal politics, violating its air defense zones and conducting increasingly intrusive and threatening military exercises around the island nation. Taiwanese, 23 million of them, are at risk of losing their freedom before the end of the decade.
China continues to bully its neighbors in the South China Sea, claiming territory nearly 1000 miles from its borders. It has harassed the Philippines, and illegally entered into the waters of Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries in the region. China continues to export both its surveillance equipment and its expertise in surveillance to non-democracies around the globe. It wants to help the governments of these countries maintain power over their people just as the Communist Party has successfully done in China.
Putin’s Russia has invaded Ukraine twice. It is as we write continuing to try to wipe a sovereign country with a democratically elected government off the map. Russia has committed repeated war crimes in doing so. Russia also has made threats to the Baltic nations and has been accused of cutting undersea Internet cables to these countries and to Finland. Russia even reaches into its oldy but goody war chest, threatening Poland’s “statehood.”
And Russia and China are partners in much of what they do. They are not two malevolent actors independently stomping the world stage. They are in cahoots. Both share the common goal of diminishing democracy’s power and prestige in the world. And they consult and work with each other to do so. They often do so in concert with North Korea and Iran.
For years, democracies could at least rely on the United States to counterbalance these forces. But today, that is no longer the case. The great battle of the next decade was supposed to be between the forces of democracy and resurgent authoritarian powers. But now the economically largest, most powerful democracy has, if not switched sides, become an enabler. It is a bit like the U.S. becoming Saruman in the Lord of the Rings to the Saurons of Mordor.
What the world could use right now to contend with these two large powerful authoritarian countries trying to exert their will on the world and upend the rules-based order is a large democracy. One steeped in a long liberty tradition, that helped cut the democratic clothe that many parts of the world increasingly wore… or did until recently. Now some countries treat democracy as fast fashion. What is needed is a democratic country with an ability to project its cultural power, with a military that gives it teeth the authoritarian countries must respect and even fear. A country that would defend the idea of sovereignty from overreaching large countries and work to unite the world to confront knotty issues. But no such country now exists. The American century, or at least the American democratic century, is gone.
Instead we have a pseudo 19th century imperial wannabe. One that rather than countering authoritarianism is a weak mimicker of it. In just the last few weeks, America has threated to take territory from Panama. It won’t rule out military force to take over Greenland. It has tariffed or threatened tariffs against neighbors, allies and fellow democracies, all over minor issues. Indeed, with Canada and Mexico, it has torn up a trade agreement negotiated by the previous Trump administration a mere five years ago. Trump’s America threatens to evict Palestinians from Gaza.
The Trump administration is eviscerating the U.S. Agency for International Development, cutting off humanitarian aid to a wide swathe of countries. This has immediate tangible effects on those starving in Sudan, suffering from HIV in Africa and needing vaccines in Bangladesh. But it also reduces the moral, practical reach of America in the world, leaving gaps for authoritarian countries to fill.
Trump is transactional. So America’s role in the world is now a transactional one. Intentions matter. For nearly a century, America was a beacon and promoter of democratic values. It worked to build a rules-based international order—an order that led to peace and prosperity in much of the world, that enabled China’s economic rise. It was a protector against tyranny. It was never perfect in doing so. It committed its own transgressions through the years, but the overall intent, the values of the country, were always there, at least somewhat providing a foundation for America’s actions in the world.
Today America’s intent is very different and so too its actions. No country will expect America to protect it from tyranny or to maintain a rules-based order in which nations and peoples can act with certainty and progress. Foreign and trade policy for authoritarian, expansionist countries is calculated the same way as for erstwhile allies. “What is in it for me” is now the overriding question of American foreign policy. There is no recognition that a better, more free world is one that is also better for America. Instead the ruling mantra of today’s America, Trump’s America, are rules are for suckers. Disorder is a fetish of the current American president so we cannot expect policies to mold a new international order.
We are back to, as we’ve written in other essays, a 19th Century world, where the most powerful countries battle each other for influence, territory and wealth. A zero-sum game that in the end nobody wins, including Americans, but especially peoples all over the world with the dumb luck to be born in smaller nations.
Instead of a great battle between democracy and authoritarianism, a fight between powerful countries, the world is now steered together by three large countries to dangerous rocks, through tumultuous waters. The rest of us, Americans who disagree, and liberty seekers around the world, must seek tools and solutions to engage the battle ourselves. To try to helm and steer to better shores. It was a tough enough battle with America on the side of angels, but now that it too is a malevolent actor, the battle has become lonelier, the odds longer. But struggle we must.